In the wake of the Trump era, a profound shift in global politics is underway, marked by a departure from American unilateralism and a re-evaluation of the world order. This transformation, as observed by Brazil's ambassador to London, Antonio de Aguiar Patriota, is not merely a change in leadership but a fundamental reconfiguration of power dynamics. The era of American primacy, characterized by its dominance in global institutions and its military might, is facing a significant challenge, with the world gradually recognizing the limitations of this unipolar system. This realization is not confined to the left-wing; it is a sentiment shared across various political spectrums, from Paris to Berlin, and even within the Atlanticist camp in Germany.
One of the most striking developments is the growing sentiment that the US is no longer a reliable ally. The war in Iran, for instance, has exposed the US's lack of competence and its disregard for international law, leading to a perception that the world will not return to a unipolar order. This shift in perception is not just about the US's actions but also about the broader implications for global stability and cooperation. The world is witnessing a multiplication of poles, not just in terms of power but also in terms of prosperity, as Spain's prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, aptly pointed out.
This new reality is prompting a re-evaluation of alliances and partnerships. The Brazilian perspective, for instance, is focused on the creation of 'coalitions of the responsible', emphasizing coordination across regions, cultures, and political systems. This is a response to the growing demand for western powers to relinquish their outsized representation in global institutions in favor of the global south. The idea of a European Defence Union, complementary to NATO, is gaining traction, with Ukraine playing a pivotal role in this new defense framework.
However, this transformation is not just about Europe restructuring its defenses; it is about whether this decline in US primacy is seen as an opportunity to address the wider global crisis. The international order, as described by the head of the UN humanitarian program, Tom Fletcher, is already in a state of collapse, and the task of humanitarians is becoming increasingly challenging due to the erosion of international law under the Trump administration. This is a critical juncture where the world must confront the reality of a post-rupture world, one in which Washington's reliability can no longer be assumed, and Beijing's partnership, despite its complexities, cannot be refused.
In this new era, the unipolarists, including the US, Russia, and Israel, remain powerful but are finding it increasingly difficult to impose their will. The world is in a state of flux, with the potential for a new order to emerge. The appointment of a new UN secretary-general next year offers a chance to challenge the current unrepresentative Security Council and to reform global institutions. The US's retreat from Iran may not have the visual symbolism of past withdrawals, but its impact on global politics could be profound, marking the beginning of a new era in international relations.
